Bank Of Canada Interest Rates
When will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates and by how much?
Posted to FP: April 12, 2010, Jonathan Ratner
With most agreeing that a rate hike from the Bank of Canada is imminent, the talk now turns to the exact timing and extent of the central bank’s policy changes.
Governor Mark Carney made a “conditional” promise to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.25% through the end of June 2010. However, one way to keep to this expiry date and provide markets with a jolt would be an initial rate hike of 50 basis points on July 20, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Sheryl King.
“Futures markets are only partially pricing in that possibility so it would be a shot across the bow to be sure,” she said in a note. “The strongest argument against this tack in our view is that the market would immediately rush to the conclusion that all future hikes will be similar in size.”
The economist thinks a 25 basis point hike on June 1 is the most likely scenario.
Meanwhile, Ms. King feels a 25 basis point hike on July 20 is the least likely scenario. She noted that this expectation is already fully priced into the Eurodollar and overnight index swap (OIS) markets. “If the Bank wants to elevate the risk premium in the bond market, validating market pricing cannot be the way they will go.”
The economist said that with growth running 40% faster than the Bank of Canada’s January forecasts, a rollover in unemployment and core CPI “frustratingly high,” there is justification to move a bit early. She added that moving early rather than large would help build up that needed risk premium without having 10-year notes move above the 6% mark that a normalized risk premium of 1.8% and a neutral overnight rate of roughly 4.5% would command.
The main arguement against a June 1 rate hike is that it comes ahead of the June 30 expiry commitment and puts the Bank’s credibility in the market at risk. Ms. King insists that credibility in achieving the central bank’s 2% inflation target is “very arguably the more important badge to maintain.”
“All along, the Bank has warned investors the commitment to not touch rates was not a promise and earlier rate hikes possible if conditions warranted.” http://network.nationalpost.com/NP/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2010/04/12/when-will-the-bank-of-canada-raise-interest-rates-and-by-how-much.aspx
Australia boosts key rate
Central bank puts benchmark rate at 4.25%, says economy no longer needs the stimulus of low rates
Adelaide, Australia — the Globe and Mail-The Associated Press
Australia's central bank raised its key interest rate Tuesday for a fifth time in six months and said the economy no longer needs the stimulus of low rates with unemployment lower than expected and housing sales robust.
The quarter percentage point rise took the benchmark rate to 4.25 per cent and followed a warning last week by the central bank governor that mortgage rates would continue to rise.
“It is appropriate for interest rates to be closer to average” because this year's economic growth and inflation are likely to be near target levels, the Reserve Bank of Australia bank said in a statement.
Australia weathered the global downturn better than most developed countries and the economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the fourth quarter of 2009.
The central bank cited indications that lenders were more willing to lend, buoyancy in the housing market and lower unemployment than expected.
“With the risk of serious economic contraction in Australia having passed some time ago, the Board has been lessening the degree of monetary stimulus that was put in place when the outlook appeared to be much weaker,” the bank said.
Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan said rates are still lower than they were before the global downturn and the central bank was making moves to bring them to normal levels.
“I know that is cold comfort for a lot of families and a lot of people in businesses,” he told reporters. “But that is the reality of a strengthening economy.”
